More Lessons from Michael Lombardi

Teams searching for electable candidates where the light is.

Having listened to every episode of GM Shuffle, and having read Gridiron Genius, these are the most pertinent lessons that NFL teams should be focusing on.  

1) “Always evaluate the evaluators”

Self-scouting is probably a relatively untapped resource in professional sports. That’s why everyone was so impressed when the Houston Astros’ process was detailed in The MVP Machine. Many organizations are focused on bringing in “better talent” or “higher draft picks” when they have plenty of underutilized resources within their own building. It’s like finding free money lying around.

2) “Fear does the work of reason”

This is something that became more clear when reading Annie Duke’s book How to Decide. When we fail to attack decisions the proper way, we continuously fall into traps like this one. The book describes methods like listing all possible outcomes, assigning relative probabilities to each one, and calculating expected utility. All things that prevent fear from doing the work of reason.

3) “When someone shows you who they are, believe them.” - Bill Parcells

A favorite of mine. It reminds me of the aphorism from Nassim Taleb “An enemy who becomes a friend will always be a friend; a friend turned enemy will remain so forever.” 

4) “Strength is strength.” - Al Davis 

I love when Lombardi shares nuggets of wisdom from Al Davis. This one pertained to the commonly held belief that teams should trade away strength to fortify weaknesses. Davis rebuked that sentiment by claiming “strength is strength,” and wanted to build on it rather than trade it away. Especially in football, there is great potential to build on strength. This is something that Daryl Morey mentioned: imagine, in baseball, if Mike Trout can get up to bat, hit a home run, and then decide to immediately hit again. That’s the NBA. It’s also the NFL. There’s nothing stopping Aaron Rodgers from throwing to Davante Adams every play. 

5) “Many teams take the path of least resistance.” 

Lombardi often recalls the episode from I Love Lucy where Lucy loses her wedding ring while building a BBQ outside. Ricky finds her searching for the ring inside and asks her why she’s looking inside when she lost the ring outside. She replies “this is where the light is.” Across all episodes of the GM Shuffle, this analogy may have come up the most. It’s a problem that many teams struggle with.

6) How to build a great team: 1) common sense 2) create an environment of stability 3) believe in the right people 4) have a sense of pride within an organization 5) owner has to care more than anybody 

This one is self-explanatory. For further reading, I detailed the entire process of how Bronco Mendenhall was able to achieve this in my book. 

7) Did the Cowboys even practice with wet footballs?

One of my favorite quotes, and this one I heard from Bill Belichick, is President Eisenhower’s statement that “In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” In November of 2019 the Cowboys traveled to New England to play the 9-1 Patriots during a rainy night in Foxborough. The next day, Lombardi asks if the Cowboys even practiced with wet footballs? What separated the two teams that night was their respective levels of preparation. On a related note….

8) “Never confuse hope for a plan”

This one reminds me of two playoff games from super wild card weekend. Down by double digits in the fourth quarter, at midfield, both the Titans and Steelers decided to punt. These were two of the least aggressive decisions in the history of tracked fourth down decisions. In theory, both coaches were probably hoping their defense would force a three-and-out, but that’s all it was: hope. There was not much evidence that it was the optimal decision, regardless of outcome. 

9) “The reward for doing is the opportunity to do more.”

This is something I remember reading from Jocko Willink in Extreme Ownership: How U.S. Navy SEALs Lead and Win. It pays to be a winner. For SEALs, and this sentiment was constantly echoed by Coach Mendenhall at Virginia, it pays to be a winner. 

10) “Instead of taking a statement for granted, question it.”

This one changed my way of thinking. If you’re watching a game with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing, or Jason Garrett coaching, odds are you’ll hear two facts mentioned. 1) Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard and 2) Jason Garrett went to Princeton. Lombardi points out that we’re prone to framing these matters as “This guy is smart, he went to XYZ University.” Instead, he suggests that we frame them as “Name me 3 smart things this guy has done.” So simple, yet so difficult. 

11) “Goalkeeper syndrome: There’s a better chance of stopping a penalty kick if you stay flat-footed and rely on athleticism, but goalies dive to ‘show effort’”

I’m no soccer expert, but the math on this checks out. If I know that, say, 60% of penalty kicks go to the middle of the goal, I’m best served not moving. However, this is an incarnation of the popular phrase “nobody ever got fired for buying IBM.” Nobody is going to criticize a goalie for launching themselves towards the corner of a goal, even if it’s a suboptimal decision. It’s the principal-agent problem: what’s in the best interest of the goalie (not looking bad) is, in this instance, not perfectly aligned with the best interest of the team (winning). 

12) “Building a team requires second-order thinking. More than the linear thinking of choosing players”

Nobody can consistently “beat” the NFL Draft over a long period of time. There are numerous mental biases that are simply too strong to overcome in order to consistently make “optimal” decisions. The best paper I’ve ever read about the subject is by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler. Yet, GMs are constantly hired, named GM of the Year, and then fired based on the results of draft classes that are more random than we think. Consider that, in 2019, 7 of the past 10 executives of the year were fired. If the advantage isn’t in choosing players, where is it? What separates good from great teams is their focus on second-order thinking. This is something that Lombardi often talks about, and something that Andrew Brandt recently wrote about. 

13) “The head coach is the chief problem solver.” 

Just like how we need to redefine what we’re looking for in a GM, we need to change what we’re looking for in a head coach. Just because someone is great at calling plays doesn’t mean they’ll be a great head coach, and vice versa. Arguably, calling plays is one of the least important roles for a head coach. Yet every year we focus on hiring away the top offensive, defensive, and now special teams coordinators from other teams to become a head coach. Lombardi knows that the true role of a head coach is to be the chief-figure-it-out officer. The head coach is the one who’s accountable for any issues, and it’s their job to fix them. This rarely has to do with calling different plays. That’s why Mike Tomlin is a great coach, regardless of his fourth down play-calling. He’s been able to solve a lot of problems in Pittsburgh. 

Since this is a part 2 of sorts, here’s part 1.